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PlanB Bitcoin Prediction: Why $100K is Officially the New BTC Price Floor (October 2025 On-Chain Analysis)

 

Bitcoin’s $100K Floor: Why PlanB’s Latest Analysis Points to $500K Peak in 2025-2026


Is Bitcoin’s Historic Bull Run Just Beginning?

Bitcoin has shattered expectations in 2025, not just by reaching $100,000—but by establishing it as a concrete support level. According to renowned quantitative analyst PlanB, creator of the influential Stock-to-Flow model, the cryptocurrency market is displaying textbook signals of an early-stage bull market with significantly more upside potential.

In this comprehensive analysis, we’ll explore the technical indicators, on-chain metrics, and historical patterns that suggest Bitcoin’s journey to six figures is far from over.


Key Takeaways For Bitcoin Investors

  • $100K has transformed from resistance to support through sustained price action and institutional accumulation
  • On-chain metrics confirm early bull market structure with Realized Price decisively above 200-Week EMA
  • RSI indicates substantial room for growth before reaching euphoric peak conditions
  • Stock-to-Flow model remains on track with scarcity dynamics supporting multi-six-figure targets
  • Timeline suggests 12-18 months of potential upside before cycle peak indicators emerge

The $100,000 Milestone: From Resistance To Foundation-Level Support

A Historic Transformation Of Market Structure

For years, $100,000 represented Bitcoin’s psychological ceiling—a level many analysts doubted would ever be reached. Today’s reality tells a dramatically different story.

What Changed:

  • Bitcoin closed above $100K for multiple consecutive months
  • Institutional accumulation absorbed available supply
  • The level transformed from resistance to robust support
Fascinating Fact: Only 0.008% of the world’s population currently owns at least one full Bitcoin. With 21 million coins maximum supply and growing global adoption, scarcity dynamics intensify at higher price levels.

“The ‘cheap Bitcoin’ era has concluded. What we’re witnessing is a structural re-rating of the asset as institutional capital solidifies price floors.” — PlanB


The Macroeconomic Engine Powering Bitcoin’s Ascent

Why Global Currency Debasement Favors Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s 2025 rally isn’t occurring in isolation. Several macroeconomic factors are converging to create perfect conditions for continued appreciation:

1. Unprecedented Global Liquidity

Central banks worldwide continue expansionary monetary policies, with the M2 money supply in major economies expanding by trillions annually. This currency debasement makes scarce assets like Bitcoin increasingly attractive.

2. Inflation Hedge Narrative Strengthens

With traditional inflation hedges like gold underperforming, Bitcoin’s digital scarcity (mathematically capped at 21 million coins) positions it as “digital gold 2.0.”

3. Institutional Adoption Accelerates

Did You Know? As of 2025, institutional investors now hold over 1.2 million Bitcoin through various investment vehicles, up from just 150,000 in 2020—an 8x increase in five years!

4. Sovereign Nation Adoption Gains Momentum

Multiple countries have added Bitcoin to their strategic reserves, legitimizing it as a treasury asset alongside gold and foreign currencies.


Technical Confirmation: The Bull Market Crossover Signal

Understanding On-Chain Metrics That Truly Matter

PlanB’s analysis relies on sophisticated on-chain data that filters out short-term noise to reveal underlying market structure. The current setup mirrors the early stages of previous explosive bull runs.

The 200-Week EMA And Realized Price Convergence

This is arguably the most compelling signal in Bitcoin technical analysis:

Realized Price

The average acquisition cost of all Bitcoin in circulation (essentially the market’s aggregate cost basis)

200-Week EMA

A long-term trend indicator smoothing price action over nearly four years

The Critical Signal:

When Realized Price decisively moves above the 200-Week EMA, it historically marks the end of accumulation and the beginning of the steepest price appreciation phase.

Current Status: Confirmed crossover with sustained separation

Historical Context – This Same Pattern Preceded:

  • The 2017 rally from $1,000 to $20,000 (20x increase)
  • The 2020-2021 surge from $10,000 to $69,000 (6.9x increase)

What This Means: Long-term holders are in profit and holding firm, indicating deep conviction and healthy demand dynamics.


RSI Analysis: The FOMO Phase Hasn’t Arrived

Measuring Market Euphoria: Where Do We Really Stand?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is crucial for identifying market tops. True cycle peaks only form when retail investors chase prices in extreme FOMO conditions.

Current Market Temperature:

  • RSI Range: 65-75 (strong momentum, but healthy)
  • Overbought Threshold: 80+ (not yet reached)
  • Historical Peak Signal: Multiple consecutive readings above 80

Critical Insight: The absence of “red dot” overbought signals means the market has substantial room to run before reaching euphoric extremes.

PlanB’s Timeline: Based on historical cycle patterns, peak FOMO conditions are projected for late 2025 or early 2026—suggesting the main rally phase lies ahead.

Interesting Fact: In the 2021 cycle peak, Bitcoin’s RSI remained above 70 for over three months before the final top. Current readings suggest we’re in the early-to-middle phase of this bull run.

Stock-to-Flow Model: Scarcity Drives Value

Understanding Bitcoin’s Scarcity Premium

PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model revolutionized Bitcoin valuation by quantifying scarcity’s impact on price.

The Model Explained:

  • Stock: Total existing Bitcoin supply
  • Flow: Annual new production (mining rewards)
  • Stock-to-Flow Ratio: Stock ÷ Flow = measure of scarcity

Post-2024 Halving Dynamics:

  • Previous Bitcoin production: 900 BTC/day
  • Current production: 450 BTC/day
  • Next halving (2028): 225 BTC/day

Model Target For This Cycle: $500,000

Why $500K Isn’t Fantasy:

  • Gold’s Stock-to-Flow ratio: ~60
  • Bitcoin’s current ratio: ~120 (twice as scarce as gold)
  • Price typically correlates with scarcity over longer timeframes

Important Context: While the S2F model provides long-term structural targets, PlanB emphasizes on-chain metrics for shorter-term guidance. Current price action continues to validate the model’s core scarcity hypothesis.

Did You Know? At current mining rates, only 1.3 million Bitcoin remain to be mined over the next 100+ years—representing just 6% of total supply.

Investment Outlook: A Data-Driven Bull Case

Three Pillars Supporting Continued Growth

1. The $100K Foundation Is Established

Multiple months of sustained closes above $100,000 establish this level as robust support, backed by institutional conviction and long-term holder accumulation.

2. Bull Market Confirmation Is Present

The Realized Price/200-Week EMA crossover provides the technical “all-clear” signal that historically precedes the steepest appreciation phases.

3. Peak Timeline Is Clearly Defined

Absence of extreme RSI readings indicates the market isn’t over-extended. Historical patterns suggest peak euphoria 12-18 months after such confirmations.

Risk Factors And Timeline Overview

Conservative

$150,000-$200,000

Moderate

$250,000-$350,000

Optimistic (S2F)

$500,000

Projected Peak Window: Q4 2025 – Q2 2026

Risk Factors To Monitor:

  • Global regulatory developments
  • Macroeconomic policy shifts
  • Black swan events
  • Technical breakdown of key support levels

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Is it too late to buy Bitcoin at $100K+?

A: Historical cycle analysis suggests early-to-middle bull market phases, with peak conditions potentially 12-18 months away. However, volatility remains significant.

Q: How reliable is the Stock-to-Flow model?

A: While no model is perfect, S2F has maintained correlation with long-term price trends across multiple cycles. It’s best used as a framework rather than precise predictor.

Q: What could invalidate this bullish outlook?

A: Key warning signs would include: Realized Price falling below 200-Week EMA, sustained RSI readings above 80, or breakdown of the $100K support level on high volume.

Q: Should I invest based on this analysis?

A: This article provides educational information, not investment advice. Always conduct personal research and consult qualified financial professionals before making investment decisions.


Final Thoughts: Navigating The 2025 Bull Market

PlanB’s comprehensive analysis, combining technical indicators with critical on-chain metrics, presents a compelling case for Bitcoin’s continued appreciation. The convergence of macroeconomic tailwinds, increasing scarcity post-halving, and healthy market structure creates conditions historically associated with sustained bull markets.

For long-term investors building positions, current market conditions present what may be a generational opportunity—though not without substantial risks inherent to cryptocurrency volatility.

The Bottom Line: All available data suggests Bitcoin’s journey to six figures represents not the end of this cycle, but rather the foundation for its next phase.


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⚠️ Critical Risk Disclosure

This content is for educational and informational purposes only and does NOT constitute financial, investment, or trading advice.

Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are highly volatile assets with substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. The Stock-to-Flow model and technical analysis provide frameworks for understanding markets but are not guarantees of future price movements.

Never invest more than you can afford to lose. All investment decisions should be made only after:

  • Conducting thorough personal research
  • Understanding your risk tolerance
  • Consulting with qualified financial professionals
  • Considering your individual financial situation

Analyst forecasts, including those from PlanB, represent models and opinions, not certainties. Cryptocurrency markets can experience rapid, severe price declines at any time.

Categories: Bitcoin Analysis | Market Commentary | Technical Analysis | Cryptocurrency Investing

 

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