Bitcoin Price Probabilities In June 2024.

Published by Jonas June 19, 2024

As we get closer to June, it’s essential to revisit some setups that have recently triggered, providing better clarity on the overall picture.

It’s crucial to visualize breaking free from any negative energies to focus on potential growth.

Historically, June has been a positive month for Bitcoin, with an average positive return of 25%. But there’s also been considerable standard deviation, meaning there’s a wide range of possible outcomes.

Looking ahead, we have some critical price points to watch for Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin sees an upswing of around 25%, its price could reach approximately $87,000. Conversely, a potential 17% drop could bring the price down below $60,000.

My personal bias leans towards a positive outcome, given the current close prices and setups.

With new setups firing off and historical data in mind, we’ll outline key price points and technical indicators to monitor. This will help us navigate the potential ups and downs over the next month.

Key Takeways

• Price probabilities for Bitcoin in June suggest significant volatility.
• Historical data shows June generally being a positive month for Bitcoin.
• Critical price points will help navigate potential outcomes.

Summary of Price Expectations for June

Review of Past June Performances

Past data shows that June has often been a positive month for Bitcoin. Out of 14 Junes, 9 have ended with a higher price than they started. This gives around a 64% chance of a positive close. The average increase during these positive months is just over 25%, though the range is quite wide, with a standard deviation of about 24%.

In terms of performance, most of these positive months saw moderate double-digit gains. There was one standout month that saw a 25% increase, but the rest were generally smaller. The negative months, totaling five, had an average drop of just over 17%.

Likely Positive and Negative Outcomes

Based on current patterns and assuming a starting price near $69,000, a 25% gain would bring the price to around $86,000 to $87,000. On the flip side, a 17% drop would put Bitcoin below $60,000, closer to $57,000 to $58,000.

Considering the overall data and patterns, I lean towards an upward price movement for June. This is based on recent trends and the historical data we’ve reviewed. Yet, a range of outcomes is possible, and unexpected shifts can always occur.

Breaking Free from Negative Energies

Imagine yourself letting go of all negative energies and anything that doesn’t serve your highest good. Take a deep breath and visualize positivity flowing into your life.

Key Bitcoin Trends in June

• Positive Junes: Out of 14 Junes, 9 have been positive. That’s a 64% success rate.
• Average Gains: For the positive months, the average return has been over 25%.
• Negative Junes: There have been 5 negative Junes, with an average loss of 17%.

Forecasting June’s Trends

Assuming Bitcoin starts at around $69,000:

• 25% Gain: Could push Bitcoin to $87,000.
• 17% Loss: Could bring it down to approximately $57,000-$58,000.

Analyzing the Current Market

A new setup has recently fired off, and it’s crucial to take note of:

• Setup Trigger: Activated at a price point of $69,136.
• Conditions: 12-hour time frame, VMP (Volatility Momentum Product) below 10%.

For those using the crown Quant automation features, this setup has a strong track record with a 55% success rate and manages risk well. It’s a straightforward strategy with clear rules and a good profit factor of 2.6.

Expected Bitcoin Behavior

Review of Favorable Months

June has been a good month for Bitcoin historically. Out of 14 total Junes, Bitcoin has closed positively in nine of them. This means there’s a 64% chance for a positive outcome. On average, these positive months saw Bitcoin gaining around 25%, though the range varied significantly due to a high standard deviation of about 24%.

Effect of Standard Deviation

The wide standard deviation implies that Bitcoin’s performance can differ quite a bit from month to month. High standard deviation means big fluctuations, both up and down, are possible. This can reach up to 24%, meaning returns might swing widely. This affects planning and predictions, adding a layer of complexity to forecasting Bitcoin’s performance.

Predictions for the Upcoming June

Looking at the potential for June, if Bitcoin follows its historical trend, we could see a 25% gain, which would push the price to approximately $86,000-$87,000. On the flip side, if June turns out to be a negative month, a loss could bring prices down by 17%, making the price drop to around $57,000-$58,000.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels

Data from past years indicates that Bitcoin has often had a positive trend in June. Looking at the history:

• Nine out of 14 Junes ended positively.
• The average gain was about 25%.
• Some months saw returns that varied widely, with standard deviations around 24.11%.

Negative months were fewer but had significant average losses of about 17%.

Assuming Bitcoin’s price opens near $69,000 at the start of June, a potential 25% gain might push the price to roughly $86,000 – $87,000. A 17% loss could bring it down to about $57,000 – $58,000.

Winning Months Breakdown:

1. Average Gain: 25%
2. Standard Deviation: 24.11%

Losing Months Breakdown:

1. Average Loss: 17%

From my analysis, it seems that the chance of positive movement is higher, especially with current prices around $70,000. There are setups that indicate a strong likelihood of this positive trend continuing, based on patterns observed in Bitcoin’s trading history.

It’s important to monitor critical price points and be ready for sudden changes in the trend. Keep an eye on setups and historical data for the best opportunity to make informed decisions.

Technical Analysis Setups and Indicators

Reviewing Previous Setups

The activation point was at $69,136. The criteria included the VMP being below 10 percentile before the signal and taking profit when it reaches above 85 percentile.

Automation Features of Crown Quant

The Crown Quant automation tools feature a streamlined setup on a 12-hour time frame. The conditions for this setup involve being in an uptrend, and the VMP needs to be below 10 percentile. It also has a profit-taking condition when the VMP exceeds 85 percentile. This setup also includes a trend filter for the 3-day time frame and a maximum stop loss of 8%.

Historically, this setup has been applied 188 times with a profit factor of 2.6 and a hit rate of just under 55%.

Evaluating Trade Statistics

The average winning trade produces about a 15% return. Typically, it takes about seven days to reach this target on a 12-hour timeframe. Losing trades, on average, take about four days to hit their stop loss.

If the current setup is a winner, we might see Bitcoin reach around $79,000 to $80,000 within the next week. This reflects historical trends where successful setups often result in noticeable rallies despite general downtrends.

Equity Curve and Performance Summary

The equity curve indicates solid performance over time.

When examining the historical data for Bitcoin, I’ve noticed that June has generally been a positive month. Out of 14 June periods, nine have ended with gains, giving a success rate of around 64%. On average, these positive Junes see a return of 25%, though there’s a high level of variation.

Positive Months

• Total Positive Months: 9 out of 14
• Average Return: 25%
• Standard Deviation: ~24%

There is one major outlier where a June ended with a 50% gain, which significantly skewed the data. Most positive months, though, hover around that 25% gain mark.

Negative Months

• Total Negative Months: 5 out of 14
• Average Loss: ~17%

Negative months have resulted in an average loss of about 17%. This highlights the importance of understanding the potential risks and preparing accordingly.

Projected Scenarios

Assuming Bitcoin begins June around $69,000:

• 25% Gain: Bitcoin could reach approximately $87,000.
• 17% Drop: Bitcoin might fall to around $58,000.

Based on current setups and using the crown Quant automation features, the typical results have been quite promising. Using a 12-hour time frame and certain criteria (like a VMP below 10 percentile and trends on a 3-day time frame), the setup has a hit rate close to 55% and a profit factor of 2.6. Over Bitcoin’s history, this setup has been triggered 188 times.

Key Metrics

• Average Winning Trade: ~15%
• Average Winning Bars: 14 (7 days on a 12-hour time frame)
• Average Losing Bars: 8 (4 days on a 12-hour time frame)

Recent results also show the setup often catching local lows before upswing rallies. This solid performance adds confidence in its reliability.

Final Considerations and Potential Outcomes

Bitcoin’s performance in June has a history of being positive. Among 14 past Junes, 9 were positive with an average return of about 25%. The rest saw an average loss of just over 17%.

If Bitcoin starts June near its current price of around $69,000, a 25% increase could push it to roughly $87,000. Conversely, a 17% drop would place it near $58,000.

A recent setup triggered at a price of $69,136, indicating a potential upward trend. This setup has historically shown a 55% success rate with a profit factor of 2.6.

On average, it provides about a 15% return on winning trades. The setup is designed for a 12-hour time frame with specific criteria and risk management.

If the setup loses, it usually happens within four days. If it wins, it typically sees results within seven days.

Calculating this, a 15% rally by the start of June would place Bitcoin between $79,000 and $80,000. The setup has performed well over the past year and a half, accurately predicting several local lows followed by rallies.

Key data points from past Junes:

Tracking these probabilities and setups can aid in estimating Bitcoin’s potential movements. This is critical information for making informed investment decisions.